«Deja vu» of the Mikhail Gorbachev’s epoch or "political Titanic" of the Russian history

28 августа, 2013 - 16:27 -- admin

   

What has been is what will be, and what is done is that which shall be done: and there is nothing new under the sun.

Ecclesiastes

 

Introduction

 

Discussion of a role of the first president of the USSR Gorbachev M.S. for destinies of Russian history does not cease. Especially it is a lot of «oil in fire» this discussion has added magnificent celebrating of its 80-year-old anniversary in London.


 

Fig. 1 Gala concert in London, devoted to Michael Gorbachev's 80 anniversary

 

      Much of this theme is explored eminent scholars, historians and politicians, sometimes it seems that everything has been fully investigated. However, by each new consideration the researcher hopes to find something such unknown before to anybody. Therefore and we will try to understand and specify, whether such drama result as disorder of the USSR in 1991 for such euphoric the begun «Perestroika» in 1985 has been predetermined

      Today many researchers try to understand a secret of recurrence and repeatability of Russian history. With reference to Gorbachev M.S's epoch many correctly find general with the Khruschev's thaw, the second and including playwright Edvard Radzinsky - with the forced liberal reforms of a XIX-th century of tsar Alexander II. The third see general between August revolution (putsch) of 1991 and the subsequent disorder of the USSR with revolutions of 1917 and the subsequent disintegration of the Russian empire. However, despite dot, fragmentary coincidence there is no conceptual, integral and complete understanding of a place of an epoch of Gorbachev M. S in Russian history, including and taking into account all completeness of parallels in history and analogies.

      As show author's researches /1, 2/ any direct and logical communications between epoch it will not be possible to find also the only thing a method there can be a search and the analysis of irrational communications. Such approach can be lawful only at the expense of consideration of Russian history by so-called cycles of Fibonacci in the history of Russia, as which it is necessary to understand the historical periods duration multiple to numbers of some Fibonacci (... 55, 34, 13, 8, 5...).

      Russian history for foreseeable can be considered 1000 and more years as process which it is possible most precisely to present in the form of a spiral of Fibonacci, and sectors (hereinafter referred to as cycles) or their parts correspond to the various political epoch, headed corresponding governors of Russia. The part of this spiral, since an epoch of reformer Alexander II, is presented on fig. 2.


 

Fig. 2 Chart of the periods of history of Russia according to cycles of Fibonacci

Since 1861: black the last epoch, by shading - future are allocated.

 

      Apparently for historical processes in Russia following features are characteristic:

              1) Spiral Fibonacci is narrowed, directing to the focus. Duration of similar historical cycles on each subsequent coil of a spiral is reduced almost in 7 times.

              2) Character and features of the historical periods, cycles on different coils of a spiral substantially are similar.

      Legitimacy of last thesis is shown in author's works and presented on fig. 3 in the form of the allocated sectors similar for different historical epoch on different coils of a spiral of Fibonacci.


 

Fig. 3 Simplified the image of the similar historical events on different branches of a spiral of Fibonacci of ancient history of Russia

 

      As appears from simple mathematical calculations and to a general view to the 7-year-old reformatory period of board of Gorbachev M.S. on the previous coil of a narrowed spiral of Fibonacci almost completely there corresponded the long 55-year-old period of board of three Russian tsars of a dynasty of Romanovs (1862-1917), also begun with liberal reforms. Accordingly, for all period of the board our contemporary had to visit 3 forms of Russian tsars, and each such small stage can be compared to a separate, local «««Deja vu» vu» vu» of Russian history (fig. 4):

         1. Gorbachev M. S - the initiator of the forced reforms - as tsar Alexander II;

         2. Gorbachev M. S - the conservative as tsar Alexander III;

         3. Gorbachev M. S - last governor of the Soviet empire as tsar Nikolay II.

      From these positions all following material also will be presented.


Fig. 4 Conformity of three stages of an epoch of Michael Gorbachev to three epoch of last Russian tsars

 

Long stagnation as the precondition of the Perestroika

 

      Today already it was much forgot from that far Brezhnev's epoch and in comparison with modern way of life it is perceived in «pink color». But, that it is better to feel all its features we will remember the statement of one known Russian historian: «… has put to itself a task of nothing change, not to enter anything new in bases, but only to support an existing order, to meet lacks, to repair found out decay the help of the practical legislation and all it to do without any participation of a society, even with suppression of the public independence, one governmental means; but it has not removed from turn of those urgent problems which  have been put, and them sharp even more strongly, than its predecessor, apparently, understood......».

      For many in the beginning of this phrase it is possible to put confidently Brezhnev L.I. and safely to use it for the description of the period of so-called stagnation. However, in a reality it is the statement belongs to the historian to Kljuchevsky V.О., concerns Nikolay I reign and on this example the generality and complete similarity of historical epoch is unequivocally shown.

      Still much in common it is possible to find in these epoch. That only there are images of grey cardinals in two these epoch (fig. 5): Arakcheev A.A. (for Nikolay I’s epoch) and Suslov M. A (for Brezhnev’s epoch). It is necessary to look at their faces, kept on portraits of the first and photos of the second without effort to notice that they as twin-brothers, are similar against each other as like as two peas. It is difficult not to believe after that in reincarnation......................................... , including political reincarnation.


 

Fig. 5 Alexey Andreevich Arakcheev and Michael Andreevich Suslov

 

      It is necessary to notice that developments of stagnation in a society in the first quarter of a XIX-th century and in 70th years of the XX-th century are characteristic extraordinary launch of popularity of two Poets-Тribun (fig. 6): Pushkin A.S. and Vysotsky V.S. Their capability «... With a verb to burn down hearts of people...» It is sharply allocated against general grey atmosphere.


 

Fig. 6 Poets-tribunes of times of stagnation of different epoch: Pushkin A.S. and Vysotsky V.S.

 

Transition from stagnation to the forced liberal reforms

 

      Transition of the power from tsar Nikolay I stagnation to forced reforms of the Alexander II is marked by the well-known words of the first on the deathbed: "….I convey to you kingdom………is not in the order in which'd like…". This one of most touching moments of Russian history «the dying father-emperor blesses the son on a kingdom» and today, after more than 150 years does not demand additional exacting comments. By the way everybody can feel a difference in relations between the father-tsar and a tsarevitch (prince) it is necessary to remember plots: «Ivan IV Terrible kills the son» or similar history about Peter I and tsarevitch Alexey.

      So, at a new stage Fibonacci spiral, nearly 130 years since the beginning of November 1982 Russia entered into a series of funerals of their general secretaries. During 2,5 years has died three general secretaries of the Central Committee of the CPSU: Brezhnev L.I., Andropov J.V., Chernenko K.U. and a management of our country began to turn from the Political bureau to Funeral bureau.

      Probably, someone from the future writers, later 50-100 years after our days in the historical novel or the scenario for a historical film will describe an unreal scene «Brezhnev L.I. on the deathbed blesses on "Gorbachev M.S. (they are two leaders of different epoch and for epoch-making stories, possibly, it is possible to lower short time of board of Andropov J.V. and Chernenko K.U.) and almost word for word will repeat the well-known words "….I convey to you kingdom………is not in the order in which'd like…".

      It is unimportant today that similar event was not in general and anywhere in official both informal shorthand reports and archives such is not fixed. But it is important that distinctions between a reality and fiction are minimum and in it the «Déjà vu» of Russian history is looked through...

      Today it is already symbolical to perceive three death of heads of the country in the end of the XX-th century as collective farewell of all leaving epoch and issue of carte blanche new, parting words to the beginning of a new epoch. The umbilical cord connecting with the leaving epoch, way of life, attitude, "atmosphere" and in general with all former, has been cut.

      Regiments of shops in capital and separate big cities were still complete, still life was stable, but already conscious and thoughtful majority of a society the beginning distinctly to understand a severe need and inevitability of changes. And internally said goodbye with for ever old life leaving to the history ….New life it was knocked on all doors … … People consciously met half-way changes. All waited for them - What it will be, this new life?

 

Michael Gorbachev as the initiator of the forced Perestroika

      And here this new and long-awaited has come also a spring morning ray of the sun was knocked to all. The Perestroika beginning in the USSR can be connected with Gorbachev M. S's election on a post of the secretary general of the Central Committee of the CPSU in March, 1985 and at first people revelled in a kind television picture of the new young leader complete by energy, its speeches, a general view and goodwill. After that processes on history reconsideration, the society renovation, the well-known triad « Perestroika, Publicity, Acceleration» have gradually begun. Steps to publicity have been taken, there is begun the antialcoholic company, XXVII congress of the CPSU which has condemned dark pages of the Soviet history from Stalin reprisals to Brezhnev's stagnation is conducted, events for conversion are planned, the rate on a stop of race of arms and many other things is taken.

      And during Alexander II’s epoch and during Michael Gorbachev's epoch before the country there was a number intra- and foreign policy questions, the finance has been extremely upset by unsuccessful Crimean war (XIX-th century) and war in Afghanistan (the XX-th century end), Russia has appeared on the verge of complete international isolation. In both cases of reform, economy and public administration Perestroika were forced and have begun with a difference hardly less than 125 years in 1862 both 1985 emperor Alexander II and the secretary general of the CPSU Gorbachev M.S.

      Badly or well, but the basic democratic processes have been started … … Process has gone and …. «The box of Pandory» has been opened.

      Can someone today to surprise the terms "transparency", "thaw", "intellectuals"? Hardly. Probably the surprise may only that the public everyday, they appeared more than 130 years before the era of Mikhail Gorbachev and the newspaper "Pravda"? Who brought them into the everyday life of this state? The initiator of reforms forced on the previous turn of the spiral Fibonacci Tsar Alexander II.

Michael Gorbachev – a conservative

      Not for long we inhaled a wind of changes and when have passed from words to business much began to be shown absolutely in another way.

      The beginning of a new phase of the conservative (1987 - 1989 yy.) Mikhail Gorbachev era it is safe to assume autumn 1987 in connection with a public conflict with Boris Yeltsin At issue were appearing misunderstanding of strategy and tactics of the restructuring. Perhaps it is these events and can be considered as the emergence of the "nucleus of the future of the revolution."

      «We will go some other way» is Lenin V.I's well-known phrase after execution of brother Alexander of an epoch of tsar Alexander III became the beginning for active political activity of the leader, including and in an underground. «Perestroika should be conducted some other way» - for certain so or nearly so thought Boris Yeltsin in unlucky days after the resignation from a post of 1st secretary of MGTS of the CPSU of an epoch of Michael Gorbachev, very soon appeared almost in underground political position thought.

      After rate adjustment on conservative style of board of Gorbachev M.S. began to contrast sharply with even recently reformatory mood. It was especially appreciable during carrying out of 1 congress of People's Deputies of the USSR when have started to smother many democratic «initiatives from below».

      It and it is no wonder since this stage it agree spirals of Fibonacci historically completely it is similar to the conservative period of board of tsar Alexander III. After all the last almost right after ascents on the Russian throne had been gave a negative estimation to results of liberal reforms of his father Alexander II and the conservative rate on «подмораживание» the countries is taken.

      Well known for the famous phrase of tsar Alexander III «At Russia have only two allies - army and navy fleet». At this conservative stage of the political epoch Michael Gorbachev has completely joined it not in words, and in practice, including for the decision of set of internal political problems.

 

Michael Gorbachev - last governor of the Soviet empire

 

      In the third final stage of board of Gorbachev M.S. (1989-1991) despite numerous attempts of strengthening of statehood and search of ways of an exit from approaching political crisis by the most drama events there was an August putsch of 1991, almost mass exit of republics from the USSR, belovezhskoe agreement, disorder of the USSR and own resignation.

      Country has started to be loosened, the number of conflicts on suburbs USSR constantly grew, we will remember some: a situation to Transcaucasia (the Karabakh and Georgian-South Ossetia conflict), Tbilisi events (1989), a situation aggravation in Dnestr region, events in New Uzene (1989), the conflict in Fergana valley, the Armenian-Jewish pogrom in Andizhan, input of the Soviet armies in Baku, mass riots in Dushanbe (1990), fights in Yerevan (1990), Baltic conflicts: Events in Vilnius (1991) and Riga (1991).

      On dramatic nature and tragic element this period can contrast only last period of board of tsar Nikolay II with drama renunciation of the power, the termination of imperial autocracy, February and October revolutions.

      Revolutions 1917 and 1991 – here the culminations of all processes in Nikolay II and Michael Gorbachev's epoch. It is difficult to find more axiomatic and equal examples on scale of a revolutionary «Deja vu» of Russian history of the XX-th century, than parallels in history between two revolutionaries Lenin V.I. and Yeltsin B.N. (fig. 7):

Lenin V.I. on an armored car (1917) - Yeltsin B.N. on the tank (1991).


 

Fig. 7 Revolutionaries: Lenin V.I. (1917) and Yeltsin B.N. (1991)

 

      Crowns this list of a «Deja vu» two most drama episodes connected with leaving of leaders of epoch from a political proscenium of the country (fig. 8):

Renunciation of Nikolay II power - Gorbachev M. S's resignation.


 

а)

b)

Fig. 8: а - Act about renunciation of tsar Nikolay II of a throne,

b -resignation of the first president of the USSR Gorbachev M.S.

 

         Duration of all stages of the Soviet power has constituted hardly about 74 years: has begun October revolution (overturn), 1917, and has ended with August revolution (putsch) in 1991. It would seem, 74 years are an non-integer number and in an explicit form does not reflect any recurrence, for example, multiple 12. But probably everyone feels that it cannot be simple ordinary number and keeps in itself the certain for the present not learnt secret. However, if to look at it from the point of view of cycles of Fibonacci after simple calculations the time interval almost equal to a complete cycle of a spiral of Fibonacci accurately appears. On fig. 9 four sectors beginning with one of key dates of Russian history – October revolution (revolution) of 1917 are well visible.

         By simple mathematical addition of integers of some Fibonacci 34+21+13+8 it is received 76 years. This number differs from 74 a little, but, it is difficult to show to rule history to "chemist's accuracy» and it is necessary to accept some rounding off. Secondly, the beginning and the end of cycles do not get exactly for the necessary dates of cycles of Fibonacci, and it means that the first and last numbers will be non-integer and settlement number 76 will change to 74.

 

Fig. 9 Demonstration of stages of the Soviet power as one coil of a spiral Fibonacci equal to ≈76 years.

 

         It comes to an end a coil in 1991-1993. Indistinct borders of the termination of the Soviet power are historically specified two events: August putsch (revolution) of 1991 and execution of parliament of 1993.

         As it is told above, the first event has accurate parallels in history with revolution of 1917. The second historically significant event in the form of execution of parliament of 1993 has the historical predecessor-double in the form of Constituent assembly dissolution in 1918 at the initiative of Lenin V.I.

         The new power has closed last night session of the Constituent assembly which has never opened more, having accompanied it is a known phrase of the chief of protection of anarchist A.Zheleznjakov  «….sentry was tired…». In 76 years after these events, in 1993 it is probable, from a similar phrase in an environment of the President of Russia Yeltsin B. N: «…. was tired….». Execution of the Russian parliament has begun. Probably, archivists never will confirm the last, but almost absolute similarity of situations does not cause doubts.

         Here so researches of history of Russia «through a prism» of cycles of Fibonacci slightly open some secrets.

 

Michael Gorbachev's epoch as «political Titanic» Russian history

 

      So, as it is possible to understand and estimate destiny of Perestroika of Gorbachev M.S., which has begun benevolent euphoria and huge hopes of all Soviet society, and has ended with geopolitical tragedy - disorder of the USSR. All this process can be compared to political Titanic which having stood in port, has gone to difficult political swimming in euphoria, with a promising beginning and huge hopes, solemnly floated on history waves, but has soon tragically broken about «an iceberg of political destiny».

      Apparently from the presented it is necessary to recognize political predefinitions, fatalism all epoch of Perestroika of Michael Gorbachev, programmed by political cycles of Russian history on the previous coil of a spiral of Fibonacci more 100 years ago. Therefore, it is natural that should appear and the leader who for small to political measures destiny of the leader of the big country should conduct it on this drama way.

      It should have softness of character, a broad outlook, humanitarian mentality to keep political balance in difficult to "political bumpiness» and by that to embody itself, the political policy different and at times inconsistent predilections. And especially to be kept from initiation of bloody slaughter in the nuclear country.

      Michael Gorbachev of it initially wanted and whether represented about it earlier? Hardly. Even if this political leader would carry a surname Ivanov, Petrov, Sidorov it there would be already details, but all the same it would should to be arranged under фатализм the Russian history, pledged earlier.

      As to Romanov G.V. and its prospects to ascend to a political Olympus it would be rejected life, at least, already at the initial stage since predefinitions of Russian history went other road and other political bends.

      In ours at times not absolutely joyful days, during realizing fatal, it is necessary to accept the higher choice submissively. Perhaps, it is unique it is necessary to hope that the same fatal (!!!) will make... «And in our street will be a holiday».

The sources

 

       1. Evgeny Lvov In search of the most ancient roots of Russian. Political mysteries in Russia. М, the Professional, 2012, 382с

      2. Cycles of Fibonacci in the history of Russia. http://saml ib.ru/l/lxwow_e_w/cyclesfibonacciinthehistoryofrussia.shtml